***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.9 16.2 0.2 53.8 53.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.3 15.8 0.0 50.1 51.0 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.3 16.4 0.3 55.6 54.9 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 9.6 12.0 14.1 0.6 61.7 58.8 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.1 13.8 0.3 56.4 55.2 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.3 11.9 0.6 64.1 59.8 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.4 15.9 0.0 49.5 50.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.0 11.7 0.4 59.2 56.8 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.1 13.9 0.3 55.9 54.9 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.5 14.0 12.4 0.3 57.8 55.8 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.7 13.3 0.3 56.1 54.6 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.0 12.6 0.4 59.1 56.6 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.4 11.9 0.3 57.8 55.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.9 14.0 0.4 59.0 57.3 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.2 15.4 0.6 61.7 58.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.3 12.8 0.4 58.7 56.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.7 15.7 0.0 50.7 51.4 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.9 11.8 0.5 62.1 58.4 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.5 15.9 0.1 51.8 52.4 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 8.9 8.6 9.6 0.6 63.4 59.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.3 15.4 0.4 58.5 57.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.0 15.6 0.1 52.4 52.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.2 15.9 0.2 54.5 54.4 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.4 13.8 0.4 59.5 57.2 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.4 14.8 0.4 57.0 56.1 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.9 11.8 0.4 59.5 56.5 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.4 15.5 0.2 54.5 54.4 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.4 14.5 0.6 63.0 59.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 11.9 11.5 11.2 0.6 63.8 59.7 9.4 10.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 16.0 0.0 50.4 51.3 13.6 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------