***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.7 17.0 0.3 55.7 54.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 12.6 14.0 16.7 0.1 51.9 51.5 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.1 17.3 0.4 57.9 55.8 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.1 11.8 14.9 0.8 65.0 60.5 9.7 10.8 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.3 14.8 0.6 61.6 58.6 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.8 12.6 12.7 0.7 65.9 61.7 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.0 14.2 16.8 0.1 51.9 51.5 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 7.7 7.2 12.6 0.6 62.8 59.6 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.3 14.8 0.5 60.0 57.5 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.3 13.4 0.6 62.0 59.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.4 14.4 0.6 63.1 59.6 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.4 13.6 0.7 64.4 60.8 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.2 13.8 12.9 0.6 63.8 60.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.8 14.9 0.5 59.6 57.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.0 15.7 16.3 0.7 64.5 60.1 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.2 14.9 13.8 0.7 65.4 61.2 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.6 16.5 0.1 51.9 51.4 13.5 14.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.1 12.7 0.7 64.7 61.0 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.0 14.1 16.8 0.2 52.9 52.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 9.2 9.0 10.5 0.7 65.2 61.2 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 12.6 14.3 16.3 0.5 60.2 57.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.8 16.4 0.2 53.2 52.5 12.8 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.7 16.7 0.2 54.3 53.7 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.7 14.5 14.7 0.5 61.1 58.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.3 14.0 15.5 0.4 57.4 55.6 12.6 13.6 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 13.7 13.3 12.7 0.7 64.6 61.2 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.2 13.8 16.2 0.3 55.4 54.2 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.8 13.7 15.3 0.8 66.5 61.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 11.8 11.5 12.1 0.7 65.1 61.2 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.0 14.3 16.9 0.2 53.1 52.5 13.2 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------