***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.3 24.7 0.7 59.8 58.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 23.0 23.5 23.3 -1.1 34.7 36.5 23.4 24.7 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 25.0 24.9 24.4 0.3 53.6 52.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 19.2 20.3 23.3 2.6 84.2 79.9 15.5 17.0 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 26.4 27.0 23.9 2.0 76.6 72.6 23.1 24.6 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 25.3 27.4 23.0 3.7 91.3 87.3 21.3 22.8 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.3 23.3 -0.8 38.4 39.6 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 14.4 15.7 22.5 2.9 83.6 79.7 10.6 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 25.5 25.8 24.3 1.4 70.0 66.7 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 25.4 26.0 22.6 1.9 75.0 71.2 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 26.2 27.0 24.7 2.4 79.7 75.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 25.2 26.5 23.9 3.1 85.8 81.6 21.5 23.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 26.4 27.7 24.6 2.8 83.7 79.3 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 24.8 24.7 22.7 0.2 53.1 52.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 26.8 27.8 26.3 2.5 83.8 79.8 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 27.0 28.4 24.7 2.9 85.1 80.8 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 21.9 22.3 22.5 -1.5 29.1 31.4 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 25.1 25.6 21.6 1.9 73.9 70.2 21.8 23.4 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.7 23.2 23.4 -1.0 37.0 38.5 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 21.0 22.9 21.0 3.4 88.1 83.6 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 24.7 25.8 25.1 1.3 68.2 65.0 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 22.4 22.8 22.3 -1.6 28.8 31.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.1 24.0 23.6 -0.5 42.8 43.5 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.2 24.7 23.1 0.8 60.8 58.7 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 25.8 25.8 24.0 1.2 67.4 64.4 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 25.8 27.9 23.9 3.8 90.9 86.7 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.6 25.1 24.2 0.7 61.2 59.2 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 26.8 28.1 24.8 3.0 87.0 82.9 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 20.4 21.3 21.4 2.4 78.8 74.5 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.1 23.9 23.8 -0.6 42.0 42.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------