***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.6 24.6 -0.5 43.6 46.0 22.6 24.1 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.3 24.1 -1.3 35.1 39.4 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 22.5 24.0 24.7 -0.6 43.0 45.7 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 18.9 18.0 22.7 0.6 58.0 55.7 16.3 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 23.4 25.2 23.2 0.0 50.5 51.1 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 22.2 24.2 20.9 0.5 57.4 55.1 22.5 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 22.3 23.1 24.0 -1.2 35.9 40.2 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 11.5 13.5 21.5 0.5 56.0 54.4 11.9 13.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 22.6 24.3 23.5 -0.2 47.5 49.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 22.6 24.5 21.9 0.1 50.7 51.2 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 23.3 25.2 23.5 0.2 52.9 52.7 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 22.4 24.4 22.9 0.6 57.1 55.1 22.8 23.9 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 26.5 25.4 22.8 0.3 54.3 53.6 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 22.4 24.2 23.1 -0.3 46.1 47.9 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 26.7 25.9 24.9 0.6 57.8 55.9 24.4 25.4 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 24.1 26.0 23.1 0.4 55.6 54.3 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 22.3 22.9 23.8 -1.2 35.1 39.5 22.7 24.3 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 22.0 24.1 21.3 0.2 52.3 52.1 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.2 23.1 24.3 -1.1 37.0 40.9 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 21.0 20.2 19.4 0.8 59.9 56.7 18.2 19.4 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 22.6 24.5 24.5 -0.1 48.1 49.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.6 23.9 -1.0 37.8 41.3 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.5 23.8 24.4 -0.8 40.3 43.5 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 22.2 24.0 23.1 -0.2 47.3 49.0 22.7 24.2 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 22.8 24.5 23.3 -0.2 46.8 48.5 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 25.9 25.1 22.2 0.6 57.0 55.3 23.6 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 22.4 23.9 23.9 -0.5 43.6 46.1 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 26.8 26.1 23.7 0.7 59.8 56.9 24.4 25.5 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 17.2 19.5 20.6 0.4 54.6 53.5 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 22.4 23.4 24.3 -1.1 37.1 41.0 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------