***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 28.4 27.7 26.8 1.0 62.7 59.8 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.5 26.3 0.3 53.9 53.6 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 28.1 27.4 27.2 1.1 63.1 60.0 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 21.3 21.6 25.4 2.0 74.9 67.8 17.8 19.3 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 28.7 28.4 25.4 1.5 68.7 63.5 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 27.1 27.0 22.8 1.5 70.8 64.7 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.3 26.3 0.4 55.5 54.6 24.3 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 16.5 16.3 23.8 1.7 70.6 64.5 12.9 14.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 28.0 27.5 25.4 1.3 66.5 62.1 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 27.9 27.5 24.2 1.5 68.3 63.1 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 28.5 28.1 25.2 1.5 68.4 63.3 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 27.3 27.3 25.3 1.8 71.3 65.2 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 28.5 28.4 24.2 1.7 70.8 64.9 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 27.8 27.2 24.8 1.1 63.9 60.5 24.2 25.8 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 29.0 29.2 26.5 1.9 73.5 67.7 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 29.1 29.1 25.0 1.8 71.6 65.5 25.5 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.0 26.1 0.4 54.6 53.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 27.2 27.1 23.7 1.6 70.1 64.2 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.1 26.5 0.4 55.0 54.5 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 22.8 23.1 21.3 1.9 74.4 66.4 19.0 20.7 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.3 28.0 26.6 1.5 68.4 63.3 24.5 26.1 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.5 26.0 0.4 55.3 54.3 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 24.1 26.7 26.6 0.6 57.7 56.5 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 27.4 27.0 25.1 1.4 66.7 62.3 23.8 25.4 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 28.4 28.1 25.3 1.4 67.9 63.0 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 27.9 28.0 24.7 1.8 72.0 65.6 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 27.8 27.3 26.0 1.1 63.6 60.4 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 29.0 29.4 25.8 2.0 75.1 68.2 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 22.7 22.7 22.7 1.7 71.2 64.7 18.6 20.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.5 26.4 0.5 55.8 55.1 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------