***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 25.2 27.1 27.2 0.5 55.9 53.4 25.5 26.7 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.2 26.0 26.8 0.0 49.7 49.1 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 24.0 26.5 27.5 0.5 56.5 53.7 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 17.5 20.5 25.7 1.3 68.1 61.1 17.8 19.1 20.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.6 27.3 25.7 0.9 61.8 57.3 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 23.3 26.1 23.2 1.0 64.4 58.7 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.8 26.8 0.1 50.8 49.8 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.0 15.6 24.0 0.9 62.7 57.7 13.3 14.6 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.9 26.6 25.7 0.7 59.2 55.7 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 24.1 26.5 24.4 0.8 60.4 56.3 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.4 27.0 25.5 0.8 61.5 57.1 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 23.7 26.4 25.6 1.1 64.3 58.9 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 24.6 27.5 24.6 1.1 64.6 59.2 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 23.9 26.3 25.2 0.6 58.1 54.9 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 28.5 28.2 26.9 1.2 66.5 60.3 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 25.2 28.2 25.3 1.1 65.6 59.7 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.5 26.8 0.1 51.5 50.3 23.9 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 23.4 26.2 23.8 0.9 62.0 57.3 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.7 25.5 27.0 0.1 50.7 49.7 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 19.1 22.1 21.4 1.1 65.6 59.3 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 24.1 26.9 26.8 0.8 61.2 56.9 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 24.0 26.0 26.6 0.2 52.6 51.1 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.0 26.0 27.1 0.2 53.0 51.4 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 23.6 26.1 25.3 0.7 59.5 55.8 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 24.5 27.0 25.6 0.8 60.9 56.5 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 27.4 27.0 25.1 1.1 64.9 59.9 24.6 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 23.9 26.2 26.3 0.5 56.5 53.8 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 28.5 28.4 26.1 1.3 68.4 61.4 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 18.7 21.5 22.9 1.0 63.0 57.8 19.0 20.5 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 23.9 25.8 26.9 0.1 50.8 49.8 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------