***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.9 25.8 0.4 58.7 56.0 24.6 25.5 26.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.4 24.9 25.1 -0.5 40.0 42.0 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.7 25.9 0.3 56.5 54.4 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 19.2 19.8 24.3 1.6 82.8 74.2 17.5 18.2 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.8 24.6 1.1 73.1 66.4 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 25.2 26.0 22.5 1.7 85.6 76.4 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 24.1 24.7 25.1 -0.4 42.6 44.1 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.0 22.9 1.5 79.3 71.4 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.9 24.7 0.8 67.4 62.2 24.2 25.1 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 25.8 25.9 23.3 1.1 72.2 65.6 24.2 24.9 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 26.4 26.6 24.7 1.2 74.9 68.1 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 25.3 25.8 24.4 1.6 80.7 72.8 23.6 24.4 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 26.5 27.0 24.0 1.5 79.0 71.5 24.7 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.5 23.9 0.4 58.7 56.1 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 27.0 27.5 26.2 1.6 80.9 73.4 25.4 26.1 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 27.2 27.7 24.5 1.6 80.6 72.7 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.7 24.2 24.8 -0.6 38.8 41.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.5 22.6 1.1 74.0 66.6 23.6 24.4 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.5 25.3 -0.4 42.5 43.9 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 21.0 21.9 20.8 1.8 85.5 75.7 19.0 19.8 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.6 26.2 25.7 0.9 68.5 62.9 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 24.2 24.8 24.7 -0.5 40.7 42.4 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.1 25.4 -0.1 47.8 48.2 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.3 24.2 0.7 64.0 59.6 23.9 24.7 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.7 26.3 24.6 0.8 67.2 62.0 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 26.0 26.6 24.0 1.8 83.6 75.3 24.3 25.0 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.5 25.1 0.5 60.0 57.0 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 27.1 27.7 25.1 1.8 84.4 76.0 25.4 26.1 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 20.6 21.1 21.9 1.3 77.9 69.4 18.8 19.6 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.6 24.9 25.4 -0.3 44.5 45.5 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------