***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.1 9.9 59.3 44.1 35.8 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 7.2 9.1 65.6 49.2 41.1 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.6 7.9 48.3 39.2 31.7 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.9 4.5 7.7 39.1 31.4 25.4 4.9 9.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 2.7 3.1 6.8 34.5 26.9 21.1 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 4.7 6.0 10.1 44.1 31.8 26.2 6.3 11.1 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.6 10.5 75.4 53.4 42.1 2.9 6.6 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 8.1 8.3 8.9 34.8 25.1 20.7 11.3 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.8 7.2 35.6 27.8 22.2 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 4.1 4.3 9.1 36.1 26.8 22.0 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 2.9 3.0 6.4 31.3 25.8 20.1 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 3.5 3.2 6.0 29.2 22.3 17.9 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.4 6.1 30.9 25.0 19.0 3.8 8.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.0 8.4 9.5 42.7 36.0 30.1 7.6 13.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.5 4.7 6.6 38.5 37.0 28.5 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 4.2 4.2 6.0 31.1 25.3 20.3 5.8 9.9 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.2 6.4 9.1 67.7 49.9 42.0 3.0 6.4 11.5 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 5.4 5.9 10.0 40.2 29.0 23.6 6.8 11.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.5 6.1 8.6 58.8 46.1 39.0 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 6.1 6.0 9.4 35.1 25.1 21.6 7.8 12.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.3 7.3 39.6 31.0 24.3 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 8.9 8.9 64.3 49.7 41.9 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.9 8.1 50.6 41.7 35.1 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.7 6.9 8.7 42.0 33.6 26.8 6.8 10.8 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.5 4.4 8.6 46.4 35.5 29.3 4.1 6.9 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 3.1 3.6 5.5 29.1 25.2 18.9 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.6 10.6 59.7 44.0 36.3 3.0 5.6 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 3.4 3.7 6.3 30.8 28.2 22.8 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 7.8 8.8 10.1 40.4 29.2 24.4 9.9 15.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.3 9.1 61.7 47.1 39.0 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------