***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.8 15.0 13.6 87.3 60.2 47.9 5.5 10.7 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.8 12.6 90.7 61.4 48.0 6.3 12.1 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.7 23.9 16.1 105.1 66.3 51.6 5.8 12.9 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.3 20.5 16.0 100.5 64.5 51.8 5.6 12.0 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.6 20.1 15.0 98.8 64.0 51.1 5.9 12.1 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.9 18.6 101.2 63.2 50.4 4.9 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.1 12.1 84.7 59.5 46.9 6.4 12.4 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 23.8 25.2 17.8 91.9 59.9 50.2 10.8 19.1 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.1 18.9 15.8 97.6 63.5 51.8 6.5 12.2 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 23.5 25.7 18.7 94.0 61.1 50.8 10.1 18.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.6 17.5 13.5 94.2 62.1 49.5 5.8 11.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.6 13.5 89.3 60.2 47.9 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.6 15.2 15.2 94.8 62.1 47.8 5.1 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 23.7 25.1 18.8 89.3 60.2 49.5 10.0 18.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.3 12.1 93.5 63.3 49.5 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.7 14.3 93.7 62.0 47.6 5.2 9.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.6 14.1 11.9 84.7 59.9 47.4 5.0 10.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.5 18.8 21.3 93.6 60.5 50.4 8.0 14.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.5 20.3 13.7 95.4 63.2 49.4 6.4 12.9 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.9 18.7 21.6 99.4 61.3 51.5 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.4 16.9 15.1 97.1 63.8 51.5 6.1 11.1 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.1 13.5 86.8 60.7 47.9 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.4 18.3 15.1 99.0 64.6 50.5 5.5 11.0 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.4 30.6 19.4 100.0 63.7 52.1 12.6 21.2 32.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.5 14.6 85.5 59.3 48.8 6.5 12.8 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.0 18.0 13.5 102.3 65.0 48.0 5.1 10.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.7 14.3 84.3 58.9 47.5 7.2 13.2 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 15.4 15.3 102.2 65.2 51.4 5.0 9.5 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.2 25.4 22.2 96.0 60.8 51.3 10.9 18.7 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 17.9 13.4 93.1 62.1 47.9 5.8 11.8 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------