***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 42.4 56.7 55.2 83.5 45.6 41.7 44.0 61.4 81.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 58.4 72.1 51.4 89.1 50.6 45.6 59.5 71.5 84.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 55.7 75.5 58.0 87.8 48.5 42.5 57.6 77.4 99.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 58.1 69.0 54.9 76.3 38.5 36.4 63.7 80.6 98.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 49.6 55.2 51.3 73.4 34.8 33.2 53.8 66.3 79.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 47.6 53.4 63.0 73.7 32.1 32.0 54.2 67.4 82.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 68.7 62.5 52.2 90.9 52.1 46.8 44.8 60.6 78.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 80.5 82.5 58.2 69.0 28.9 29.9 86.5 102.2 118.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 52.4 57.8 54.7 74.5 35.1 33.2 56.4 68.2 80.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 59.4 63.5 61.0 71.5 31.7 31.2 64.5 78.6 94.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 50.9 54.3 47.6 70.5 32.1 31.4 54.9 64.9 75.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 41.4 41.8 44.1 62.9 26.0 27.8 46.2 57.3 69.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 45.5 49.5 49.0 66.0 30.3 30.1 51.3 62.2 74.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 72.7 84.7 68.2 79.4 40.4 36.8 77.8 94.0 111.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 37.6 46.2 44.1 71.8 39.2 35.9 41.2 54.9 70.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 37.4 41.0 47.3 67.6 30.7 30.4 42.5 54.0 66.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 72.1 62.0 48.9 86.0 48.9 45.0 45.8 63.0 83.4 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 60.5 64.7 68.8 74.0 32.8 32.6 64.7 77.3 90.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 58.6 77.3 54.1 90.1 51.3 45.5 60.3 76.0 93.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 54.1 56.8 67.8 74.2 30.7 31.8 58.5 71.8 86.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 44.7 53.2 54.5 78.5 39.9 36.9 48.0 60.9 74.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 75.1 65.9 51.9 86.0 48.7 44.3 51.9 67.0 83.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 49.6 65.3 58.8 92.2 52.3 45.2 51.2 63.8 76.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 70.2 80.1 65.5 80.7 40.4 37.2 73.5 89.0 105.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 48.3 57.6 57.6 78.2 40.6 38.1 51.4 65.8 82.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 37.3 40.5 42.2 62.9 27.7 27.5 44.6 57.3 71.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 49.7 60.1 58.9 82.5 44.3 41.1 50.3 65.2 81.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 44.0 49.9 50.0 72.1 36.1 34.4 48.0 57.9 68.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 77.6 81.6 70.7 75.0 32.7 33.3 82.0 96.1 111.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 53.7 69.8 53.9 89.6 50.6 44.8 55.6 69.1 84.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------