***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.5 13.4 -0.9 34.8 36.7 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.1 12.9 -1.2 29.7 31.5 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.8 12.8 13.0 -1.2 28.8 31.0 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.7 11.1 -1.0 33.3 35.3 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.8 11.2 -1.0 31.4 33.8 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.9 9.3 -0.7 36.1 37.6 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.9 11.4 13.1 -1.0 32.9 34.7 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.0 8.8 -1.2 27.9 29.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.8 11.8 -0.9 33.3 35.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.5 10.5 9.9 -1.1 29.7 31.8 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.4 10.8 -0.9 31.8 33.8 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.6 8.7 9.7 -1.0 30.9 32.7 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.3 10.2 -0.6 38.7 40.0 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 11.1 11.0 11.1 -1.4 23.9 26.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 12.8 12.3 13.4 -0.3 44.5 45.4 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.1 10.7 -0.7 35.4 37.1 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.4 12.5 -1.3 29.1 31.0 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.8 8.8 8.9 -1.2 26.6 28.7 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.8 -1.3 28.2 30.1 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.7 4.7 6.5 -1.4 23.7 25.7 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.6 10.6 12.8 -1.1 29.5 31.9 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 10.5 10.5 12.4 -1.4 26.3 28.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 10.6 10.6 12.6 -1.3 26.6 28.8 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.6 10.6 11.1 -1.2 27.1 29.4 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.0 12.4 -0.9 33.5 35.8 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.5 9.2 -0.8 34.1 35.9 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.8 11.5 12.9 -0.8 36.4 38.2 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.2 12.0 -0.6 38.8 40.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 7.1 7.1 8.1 -1.3 26.0 28.1 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.3 13.2 -1.1 30.9 32.7 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------