***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 11.9 11.9 14.1 -1.3 27.7 30.9 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 11.8 12.0 14.4 -1.1 31.0 34.1 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 13.3 13.5 14.2 -1.2 29.9 33.1 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 8.2 8.4 12.0 -1.2 28.9 32.1 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 10.5 10.6 11.8 -1.1 29.5 32.7 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 9.8 9.9 9.9 -0.9 30.9 34.3 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.3 14.4 -1.1 31.2 34.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.3 9.9 -1.0 30.2 33.7 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 11.6 11.7 12.1 -1.2 28.6 32.0 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 11.6 11.7 10.6 -1.1 29.3 32.9 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.5 11.4 -0.9 32.3 35.5 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.7 9.8 10.9 -0.9 31.7 34.9 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.0 10.3 -1.0 29.5 32.8 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.2 12.3 -1.1 29.0 32.8 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 12.6 12.7 12.8 -1.0 30.5 33.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.8 11.1 -0.9 31.8 34.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.0 -1.2 29.3 33.0 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 10.1 10.3 10.0 -1.0 29.6 33.2 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 12.0 12.2 14.3 -1.1 31.0 34.2 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.2 6.2 7.9 -1.2 27.1 31.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 11.6 11.6 13.3 -1.3 28.0 31.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.8 13.9 -1.2 28.7 32.8 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 11.5 11.8 13.9 -1.1 31.0 34.3 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 11.4 11.6 12.1 -1.0 30.4 33.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 11.6 11.6 12.5 -1.3 26.9 30.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 10.5 10.5 10.2 -1.2 26.6 30.1 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 11.5 11.6 13.3 -1.3 27.9 31.1 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 10.6 10.7 12.4 -1.0 30.3 33.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 8.4 8.6 9.3 -1.0 29.6 33.4 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.5 -1.1 30.8 33.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------