***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.5 16.5 -0.2 47.0 47.6 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.3 16.9 0.1 51.1 51.0 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.6 16.4 -0.2 45.9 46.6 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.6 10.6 14.1 -0.4 43.3 44.1 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.5 13.8 -0.4 42.5 43.4 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.2 11.5 -0.6 38.5 40.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 14.7 14.5 16.9 0.1 51.4 51.1 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.9 11.6 -0.5 41.0 42.1 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.4 14.1 -0.4 41.9 43.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.1 12.4 -0.5 41.0 42.2 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.2 13.2 -0.4 43.2 44.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 12.7 -0.4 42.4 43.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.7 12.1 -0.5 40.2 41.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.0 14.3 -0.3 43.6 44.7 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.3 14.9 -0.3 43.5 44.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.5 12.9 -0.4 42.1 43.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.7 16.4 -0.1 48.9 49.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.9 11.8 -0.5 41.2 42.4 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 14.6 14.3 16.7 0.0 50.6 50.7 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.4 9.6 -0.6 38.4 39.7 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.5 15.4 -0.4 43.1 44.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.8 16.4 -0.1 48.8 49.3 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.9 16.3 0.0 49.4 49.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.4 14.0 -0.4 43.1 44.2 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.7 14.8 -0.3 45.4 46.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.1 12.2 -0.5 40.9 42.0 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 13.9 15.7 -0.1 47.6 48.2 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.5 14.4 -0.4 43.2 43.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.0 9.9 11.0 -0.5 40.8 42.0 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 14.9 14.6 16.9 0.0 50.4 50.4 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------