***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 13.1 13.2 15.3 -0.6 35.6 37.3 13.1 13.7 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.0 15.4 -0.5 37.8 39.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.5 15.2 -0.6 33.4 35.4 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.3 9.5 13.0 -0.6 32.0 33.8 9.5 10.2 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.4 11.5 12.8 -0.7 31.3 33.4 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.4 10.8 -0.6 31.6 33.4 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.2 15.5 -0.4 39.7 41.0 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.0 10.7 -0.7 30.0 32.2 5.1 5.7 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 13.3 -0.6 31.9 34.1 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 12.3 12.3 11.6 -0.7 30.2 32.5 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.3 12.4 -0.6 33.5 35.4 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.3 10.4 11.8 -0.6 32.9 34.8 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.8 11.8 11.4 -0.5 33.4 35.1 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.2 -0.7 30.4 32.8 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.6 14.2 -0.4 37.3 38.6 13.4 14.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 12.5 12.6 12.2 -0.5 34.0 35.7 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.4 15.0 -0.6 35.4 37.3 13.3 13.9 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.9 10.8 10.9 -0.7 29.5 31.7 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.1 15.3 -0.5 36.7 38.4 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.6 6.6 8.6 -0.9 25.8 28.0 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.4 12.4 14.5 -0.7 31.0 33.3 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.9 -0.7 33.9 36.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.6 14.9 -0.6 35.5 37.3 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.4 13.0 -0.7 31.3 33.7 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 12.4 12.5 13.8 -0.6 32.9 34.9 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.2 11.2 -0.6 31.2 33.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 12.5 12.7 14.6 -0.5 36.2 37.9 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 11.5 11.6 13.5 -0.5 35.0 36.4 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.2 10.1 -0.7 29.7 31.8 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.2 15.5 -0.5 37.7 39.2 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------