***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 21.3 20.3 21.3 -3.3 11.6 15.4 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 22.1 21.2 21.4 -3.3 12.4 15.5 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 21.7 20.5 20.9 -3.6 10.0 13.5 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 14.2 13.3 18.9 -3.0 13.1 16.6 15.6 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 21.6 20.2 19.1 -3.5 9.6 13.7 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 20.0 19.2 17.0 -2.9 13.8 17.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 21.6 20.8 21.6 -3.1 13.6 16.9 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 9.0 7.4 16.7 -3.7 9.4 13.8 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 21.0 19.5 19.9 -3.7 9.1 13.1 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 20.9 19.4 17.7 -3.8 8.6 12.7 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 21.3 19.9 18.7 -3.5 9.9 14.3 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 20.2 19.1 18.0 -3.3 11.6 16.1 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 21.0 19.9 18.4 -3.1 12.6 17.2 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 21.4 19.9 18.9 -4.0 8.1 11.0 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 22.7 22.3 21.6 -2.5 17.8 20.9 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 21.6 20.5 18.8 -3.1 11.8 16.3 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 21.2 20.4 21.0 -3.3 12.8 15.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 20.2 18.4 16.6 -4.0 8.0 11.7 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 21.5 20.5 21.1 -3.5 11.4 14.5 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 15.0 12.8 14.4 -4.1 7.0 10.7 16.8 18.5 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 21.5 20.1 20.6 -3.8 9.1 12.9 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 21.5 20.6 20.7 -3.5 11.7 14.3 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 21.8 20.7 20.7 -3.5 10.6 13.9 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 20.9 19.5 18.9 -3.9 8.6 12.1 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 21.8 20.8 20.0 -3.3 11.0 14.7 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 20.8 20.1 17.8 -2.7 15.6 20.0 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 21.3 20.4 20.7 -3.2 11.8 15.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 22.5 21.9 20.0 -2.8 15.3 18.7 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 15.1 13.2 15.7 -4.1 7.4 11.0 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 21.8 20.9 21.5 -3.3 12.2 15.6 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------