***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.4 24.5 -0.9 38.1 41.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.6 24.0 24.8 -0.9 39.2 41.7 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.6 24.3 -1.2 35.0 38.6 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 16.0 16.5 22.4 -1.2 33.5 37.6 16.4 17.6 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 23.5 24.0 22.2 -1.4 31.5 36.1 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 22.6 22.6 19.8 -1.5 29.8 34.5 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.9 24.8 -0.7 40.9 43.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 11.8 11.9 20.2 -1.7 28.7 33.7 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 22.8 23.2 22.5 -1.5 31.0 35.6 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 22.8 23.0 20.9 -1.7 29.2 34.1 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 23.6 23.9 21.6 -1.4 31.5 36.3 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 22.7 22.8 21.2 -1.5 30.2 35.2 23.0 24.2 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 23.9 24.0 20.6 -1.5 29.8 34.8 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 22.7 22.8 21.9 -1.8 28.5 32.9 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 24.3 24.7 23.1 -1.0 36.3 39.5 24.5 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 24.4 24.7 21.3 -1.4 31.2 36.0 24.8 25.9 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 25.3 23.5 24.5 -1.0 38.4 40.9 23.0 24.6 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 22.2 22.3 20.1 -1.8 28.1 32.8 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 23.4 24.6 -1.1 37.3 40.2 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 18.0 18.0 17.9 -1.9 26.9 31.6 18.4 19.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 22.8 23.4 23.5 -1.4 32.9 37.1 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.2 23.7 24.1 -1.2 35.6 38.5 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.1 23.5 24.0 -1.3 34.3 37.8 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 22.5 22.7 22.0 -1.7 29.6 34.1 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 23.2 23.9 22.7 -1.0 36.4 39.9 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 23.7 23.7 20.6 -1.5 30.3 35.1 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 23.0 23.8 23.6 -0.9 38.4 41.5 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 24.2 24.5 22.6 -1.2 33.4 37.4 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 17.5 17.5 19.1 -1.9 27.3 32.0 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.5 23.9 24.8 -0.9 39.0 41.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------