***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 27.0 26.4 26.9 -0.1 48.9 49.5 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 26.6 26.4 27.3 0.3 52.7 52.8 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 26.5 25.9 26.8 -0.2 48.2 48.9 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.8 18.9 24.6 -0.5 43.7 44.9 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.1 26.1 24.6 -0.5 44.5 45.5 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 25.6 24.6 22.2 -0.5 43.8 44.9 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 26.2 26.1 27.4 0.4 53.9 53.7 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.0 14.0 22.8 -0.5 44.7 45.7 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 26.3 25.4 25.0 -0.5 44.7 45.8 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.3 25.3 23.5 -0.5 44.5 45.6 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 26.8 26.0 24.1 -0.4 46.0 46.9 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 25.7 24.9 23.9 -0.4 46.0 46.8 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.0 26.0 23.2 -0.5 44.4 45.4 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 26.3 25.5 24.7 -0.4 46.4 47.5 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 27.7 26.8 25.2 -0.5 43.8 45.0 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 27.6 26.6 23.8 -0.5 44.6 45.6 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 26.0 25.7 27.0 0.1 51.5 51.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 25.6 24.7 22.8 -0.5 44.2 45.5 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 26.0 25.7 27.2 0.2 51.7 52.0 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 21.2 20.0 20.5 -0.7 42.1 43.4 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 26.6 25.7 25.9 -0.4 45.2 46.3 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 26.5 26.0 26.6 0.0 49.5 50.2 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 26.4 25.9 26.7 0.0 50.3 51.0 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 25.9 25.0 24.7 -0.4 46.0 47.1 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 26.9 26.1 24.9 -0.4 45.8 46.8 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 26.5 25.7 23.2 -0.4 45.0 45.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 26.4 25.9 25.9 -0.1 48.5 49.1 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 27.7 26.7 24.8 -0.6 43.3 44.5 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 20.9 19.8 21.8 -0.6 43.7 44.9 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 26.3 26.1 27.4 0.2 52.1 52.3 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------