***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 24.5 24.6 25.0 -1.0 31.6 34.9 24.7 25.6 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.9 24.8 25.3 -0.9 35.2 37.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 24.3 24.4 24.8 -1.3 28.9 32.6 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 17.2 17.3 22.8 -1.3 26.5 30.3 17.6 18.4 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 24.6 24.5 22.8 -1.5 24.0 28.4 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 23.1 23.0 20.5 -1.3 23.2 27.6 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.6 25.4 -0.7 37.3 39.7 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.3 20.8 -1.5 22.1 26.7 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 23.9 23.9 23.2 -1.5 23.9 28.3 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 23.9 23.8 21.6 -1.6 21.9 26.5 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 24.3 24.3 22.3 -1.4 24.4 29.0 24.8 25.6 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 23.4 23.4 22.0 -1.3 25.3 29.7 23.8 24.5 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 24.4 24.3 21.5 -1.4 24.3 28.8 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 24.0 23.9 22.7 -1.6 23.8 27.9 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 25.4 25.4 24.0 -1.0 30.3 33.5 25.6 26.3 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 25.0 24.9 22.1 -1.3 24.7 29.1 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.1 25.0 -1.0 33.7 36.4 24.0 24.9 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 23.3 23.1 20.7 -1.7 21.5 25.8 23.7 24.5 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.0 24.2 25.2 -1.0 33.3 36.3 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 18.6 18.2 18.5 -1.8 18.7 23.0 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 24.1 24.1 24.1 -1.5 25.0 29.3 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 24.3 24.4 24.6 -1.2 30.9 33.9 24.5 25.4 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.3 24.4 24.7 -1.2 31.0 34.4 24.5 25.4 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 23.6 23.6 22.7 -1.6 24.0 28.2 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 24.5 24.5 23.3 -1.2 28.0 31.6 24.8 25.6 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 24.1 24.1 21.4 -1.2 26.9 30.8 24.4 25.1 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 24.2 24.3 24.2 -1.0 31.3 34.5 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.3 25.3 23.3 -1.2 27.2 31.0 25.6 26.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 18.4 18.1 19.7 -1.8 20.3 24.6 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.6 25.4 -0.9 34.7 37.5 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------