***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 13.3 20.5 26.8 187.1 85.1 74.2 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 21.0 20.6 151.7 78.1 69.6 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 13.5 16.9 23.8 157.3 79.5 65.5 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 22.7 34.3 35.0 198.9 86.7 75.7 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 17.2 26.1 33.5 191.7 85.4 72.6 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 22.1 29.6 36.3 174.3 83.2 75.1 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.3 19.8 20.3 155.9 78.8 71.1 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 35.5 46.9 36.9 169.0 81.6 70.7 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.7 23.2 33.4 179.3 83.2 72.1 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 20.8 28.7 39.0 172.6 82.5 70.7 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 19.1 28.5 32.1 191.9 85.2 73.1 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 18.6 27.4 30.2 184.9 84.1 72.9 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 20.4 33.9 34.5 199.5 87.4 75.6 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.8 27.7 29.0 136.5 74.5 61.8 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 19.1 27.7 31.9 189.4 85.2 73.8 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 19.1 29.1 31.9 188.8 85.1 73.6 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 13.9 16.7 18.1 139.8 75.3 67.3 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 20.9 28.0 40.0 158.7 80.1 68.2 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 13.5 18.0 21.7 151.7 78.0 68.8 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 21.0 28.6 41.8 165.7 81.7 71.2 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.0 17.5 28.9 172.0 82.2 69.3 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.7 21.7 17.5 128.7 72.4 62.1 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 12.5 16.7 24.5 153.2 78.5 67.9 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 19.2 24.6 32.1 151.8 78.3 65.5 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 13.7 21.4 34.5 199.8 87.8 76.1 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 18.9 26.9 32.2 181.1 84.3 74.4 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 12.8 20.6 31.6 195.8 86.7 76.6 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 17.1 24.8 32.8 187.4 84.9 74.2 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 26.9 36.4 39.7 161.5 80.5 69.2 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.9 16.7 20.9 150.3 77.9 68.4 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------