***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9.0 28.1 12.9 109.5 67.5 46.9 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.7 18.7 11.8 92.4 60.8 44.9 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 9.5 29.3 12.3 105.4 65.7 44.9 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.4 34.2 19.0 134.2 73.9 58.4 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.3 23.9 17.7 126.8 72.1 54.9 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.3 20.3 24.8 107.8 65.6 56.9 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.8 15.2 10.3 81.1 56.5 41.9 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.9 33.3 18.2 110.6 67.5 53.9 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 19.8 26.0 16.6 121.6 70.9 54.3 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.3 23.3 19.0 116.0 69.0 54.2 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.6 21.3 13.4 114.7 68.9 51.7 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.2 20.9 14.3 114.0 68.6 54.2 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.5 18.5 106.6 66.1 55.0 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.5 34.9 17.6 105.9 66.2 52.7 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.9 21.9 14.9 114.0 68.6 53.3 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.6 19.1 16.9 118.8 69.7 56.2 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.2 21.2 10.8 83.8 58.4 44.7 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 31.0 33.2 24.7 131.7 73.2 60.5 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 7.8 23.3 12.2 98.6 63.2 46.3 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 24.9 26.9 27.2 128.7 72.3 61.4 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 8.8 25.8 13.4 118.7 70.2 50.6 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.9 19.7 11.3 86.4 59.8 46.2 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 8.2 21.7 12.5 99.8 64.5 47.8 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.5 33.6 19.0 121.3 70.5 56.2 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.1 28.4 17.6 120.2 70.2 53.5 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.0 18.9 16.5 116.1 69.0 56.6 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.3 25.4 16.3 110.3 67.4 50.0 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.7 20.6 17.2 124.1 71.4 55.2 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 33.0 35.9 24.4 132.8 73.4 60.1 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 8.0 20.9 11.7 93.3 61.4 43.0 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------