***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.5 23.5 13.1 113.2 68.7 53.1 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 20.6 24.6 14.2 102.1 65.4 51.6 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 21.0 28.2 13.9 111.4 67.9 52.1 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.0 37.3 21.1 148.3 77.2 59.1 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.7 27.7 21.2 144.9 76.4 58.1 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.3 22.5 27.0 108.7 67.8 58.6 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.7 19.3 14.1 98.6 64.4 50.4 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.1 29.3 20.7 115.9 69.2 57.7 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.7 27.5 21.8 142.5 76.0 57.4 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.8 26.2 23.5 126.1 72.0 58.3 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.7 22.8 17.2 129.5 72.9 56.9 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.8 17.7 14.9 112.0 68.5 57.1 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.4 18.2 19.4 107.8 67.8 59.4 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 17.0 23.1 19.4 111.6 68.2 55.9 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.8 21.6 18.4 141.0 75.7 56.0 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.2 16.4 18.2 120.7 71.0 58.9 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.9 23.6 14.3 98.8 64.7 51.4 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 25.1 26.5 125.1 71.8 60.8 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.9 27.5 13.8 104.3 66.1 52.4 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.5 23.8 25.9 118.6 69.9 60.4 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.7 28.0 17.1 139.5 75.4 55.7 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 20.5 24.7 13.9 103.6 66.2 53.4 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.1 21.3 13.9 107.5 67.1 53.2 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.3 28.5 21.6 123.4 71.4 58.8 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.1 26.2 18.8 131.0 73.0 57.3 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 18.2 18.1 16.1 114.9 69.4 61.0 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.4 22.5 16.6 113.0 68.5 55.1 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.5 22.3 19.5 136.4 74.7 57.1 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.8 32.9 24.8 121.5 70.9 60.0 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.8 27.0 13.4 100.7 64.9 50.8 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------