***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.2 22.8 12.6 125.1 72.0 49.5 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 18.0 23.4 11.8 110.0 67.7 50.2 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.7 25.9 11.9 115.5 69.3 50.3 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.0 20.0 12.7 101.5 65.7 45.7 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.6 20.8 12.5 102.5 65.8 46.0 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.0 22.6 18.9 119.9 70.3 55.9 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 18.1 22.3 11.9 106.3 66.6 47.7 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.6 31.0 15.3 118.1 69.8 53.8 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.0 21.2 13.0 104.7 66.5 45.5 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 30.3 15.6 107.8 67.0 49.7 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.7 19.1 10.6 104.7 66.3 48.6 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.9 16.0 10.9 116.0 69.8 53.1 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.7 19.1 13.6 115.8 69.6 55.0 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.8 33.7 16.4 115.4 69.3 51.1 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.9 10.4 91.6 63.6 43.1 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.7 17.8 12.0 114.1 69.2 52.2 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.6 13.9 11.1 101.9 65.3 48.6 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.1 22.1 18.7 109.7 67.5 51.9 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 18.6 26.7 11.9 115.6 69.3 51.1 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 24.4 19.9 124.6 71.5 57.8 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.5 19.3 11.4 107.2 67.2 45.3 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.9 18.0 12.1 115.8 69.2 52.6 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.9 22.3 12.5 122.3 71.2 50.7 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.8 33.7 15.9 110.4 67.8 50.5 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.9 24.4 15.2 117.8 70.1 46.5 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.3 18.5 10.9 115.3 69.5 55.3 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.4 26.7 15.0 118.8 70.2 47.9 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.2 15.4 11.5 97.1 65.0 46.2 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.5 29.1 18.3 110.2 67.8 53.0 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.1 23.3 12.0 113.5 68.7 50.0 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------