***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 89.7 102.0 65.4 137.0 75.8 65.7 45.5 63.5 84.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 78.5 87.6 58.4 114.6 66.6 58.8 60.5 73.4 87.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 86.6 108.1 61.8 124.8 71.2 59.9 58.1 77.3 99.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 106.8 123.8 87.8 150.1 80.6 70.7 63.9 81.2 100.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 86.4 97.3 85.0 145.9 79.7 69.4 54.1 67.0 81.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 88.3 90.2 107.0 126.8 72.7 66.2 57.7 70.3 83.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 69.7 77.9 56.5 110.5 64.5 57.1 45.3 61.6 80.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 125.9 131.3 91.1 132.5 75.5 68.5 87.1 102.8 119.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 85.7 94.1 84.7 141.4 77.9 67.8 56.3 68.7 81.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 100.0 107.4 97.0 135.1 76.2 67.7 64.8 79.4 94.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 81.2 87.4 73.3 141.7 78.0 68.9 54.5 65.1 76.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 75.1 79.2 70.3 136.8 76.4 69.3 46.5 57.6 69.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 78.9 82.9 86.0 133.7 75.1 68.5 52.6 63.4 74.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 101.7 115.4 82.4 118.7 68.7 59.9 78.2 94.9 112.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 76.2 84.2 75.6 139.2 76.5 66.3 42.6 56.3 71.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 73.0 79.1 78.9 139.1 77.4 69.1 42.5 54.3 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 71.7 78.9 54.4 106.1 62.5 56.4 45.8 63.5 83.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 94.8 101.8 109.9 133.7 75.7 67.8 66.5 78.9 91.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 84.9 99.8 59.6 118.7 68.5 59.7 61.6 78.4 96.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 92.3 100.4 114.8 136.2 77.8 70.9 59.0 72.6 86.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 81.7 90.6 70.7 138.9 76.7 65.8 48.7 62.7 77.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 78.3 85.7 54.7 108.4 63.6 57.1 51.9 69.8 88.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 70.3 83.0 63.4 122.7 70.4 59.7 52.4 65.0 78.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 97.0 116.4 88.5 128.9 73.3 64.0 74.3 90.4 107.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 89.8 103.3 86.1 145.2 79.4 69.1 51.5 66.9 84.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 79.7 84.4 75.6 136.8 76.5 70.5 45.7 58.4 72.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 89.3 99.6 79.4 136.5 75.9 66.9 52.0 67.8 85.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 71.6 77.3 81.0 140.7 77.2 68.1 47.2 57.2 67.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 116.8 124.8 107.2 134.0 76.1 68.4 83.9 98.4 113.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 79.1 89.9 58.0 115.3 67.0 58.2 57.4 72.6 88.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------