***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.1 10.7 -3.5 3.5 4.4 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 10.0 8.3 10.7 -3.3 4.6 5.7 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 11.8 10.1 11.0 -3.3 4.5 5.5 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 6.2 3.4 8.0 -3.6 2.3 3.0 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 8.7 6.9 8.9 -3.4 3.1 3.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 7.6 6.0 6.3 -3.1 3.3 4.4 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.5 10.8 -3.2 4.9 6.0 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 2.0 0.2 6.6 -2.8 4.4 5.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 9.7 8.3 9.5 -2.9 4.8 5.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 9.5 8.2 7.7 -2.7 5.4 7.0 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 9.4 7.9 8.9 -2.9 4.3 5.4 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 7.6 5.9 7.4 -3.1 3.2 4.2 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 8.9 7.7 7.9 -2.8 5.3 6.3 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 10.4 9.6 9.4 -2.6 7.8 9.2 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 10.6 8.7 10.0 -3.4 2.8 3.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 9.8 8.0 8.2 -3.2 3.3 4.2 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 10.4 8.9 10.6 -3.2 5.5 6.6 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 8.1 6.9 7.1 -2.8 5.7 7.1 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.6 10.8 -3.3 5.0 6.1 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 4.1 2.8 5.1 -2.9 5.3 6.6 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 9.7 8.2 10.4 -3.1 4.1 5.0 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 9.8 8.7 11.0 -2.9 7.0 8.1 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 9.8 8.5 10.7 -3.2 5.3 6.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 9.8 8.8 9.4 -2.6 7.4 8.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 9.7 7.2 9.4 -3.9 1.9 2.4 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 8.3 6.9 6.5 -3.1 4.6 5.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 9.8 7.5 10.0 -3.7 2.9 3.6 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 8.7 6.9 8.8 -3.5 2.7 3.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 6.2 4.5 6.3 -2.8 4.8 6.2 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.4 10.9 -3.3 4.6 5.7 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------