***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.1 16.4 0.5 58.5 55.7 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.6 16.2 0.3 54.7 53.2 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.3 16.5 0.4 56.7 54.7 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 13.7 0.2 54.3 53.0 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.9 13.6 0.1 52.5 52.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.2 11.8 0.4 59.2 56.2 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.9 16.4 0.4 56.9 54.8 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.7 11.4 0.2 53.8 53.3 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.0 13.8 0.2 54.1 53.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.8 12.3 0.2 55.0 54.3 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.6 13.1 0.1 51.6 51.7 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.7 12.3 0.1 53.0 52.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.3 11.7 0.2 53.4 52.5 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.6 13.8 0.2 53.8 53.0 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.8 14.9 0.1 53.0 51.6 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.0 12.5 0.1 52.4 51.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.9 16.0 0.2 53.5 52.3 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.8 11.6 0.4 58.6 56.7 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.5 16.2 0.2 53.7 52.5 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.3 9.3 0.3 57.2 55.7 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.1 15.3 0.2 54.7 53.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 15.8 0.2 53.5 52.2 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 16.0 0.2 53.1 52.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.3 13.7 0.3 57.2 55.5 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.2 14.7 0.3 55.4 53.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.8 11.6 0.3 56.8 55.0 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.6 15.7 0.5 58.3 55.4 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 14.0 0.2 53.9 52.4 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.0 10.9 0.3 57.7 55.9 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.0 16.5 0.4 57.0 54.9 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------