***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 21.0 19.5 20.6 -3.7 8.0 10.3 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 21.7 20.4 20.7 -4.0 7.9 10.1 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 21.4 20.0 20.3 -4.2 7.4 9.3 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 13.8 10.7 16.3 -4.6 2.8 4.3 15.6 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 21.3 18.1 17.4 -4.9 2.8 4.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 19.5 15.5 14.4 -5.3 1.5 2.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 21.1 19.9 20.7 -3.7 8.3 10.9 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 8.6 4.9 14.7 -5.3 2.2 3.5 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 20.7 18.0 18.6 -4.6 3.7 5.5 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 20.6 17.7 16.1 -5.0 3.1 4.7 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 20.9 17.5 17.4 -5.3 2.4 3.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 19.8 16.4 15.9 -5.3 2.1 3.4 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 20.5 16.5 16.6 -5.6 1.9 3.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 21.2 19.5 18.7 -4.1 6.6 8.9 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 22.1 19.0 19.2 -4.8 2.1 3.2 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 21.2 17.3 16.7 -5.4 2.0 3.2 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 99 1 0 100 20.9 19.5 20.2 -4.0 7.4 9.7 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 19.9 16.9 15.2 -4.9 3.3 4.8 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 21.2 19.9 20.6 -4.0 8.3 10.4 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 14.6 10.4 12.6 -5.3 1.8 3.1 16.8 18.5 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 21.2 18.9 19.6 -4.5 4.5 6.3 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 21.3 20.2 20.4 -3.7 9.4 11.8 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 21.5 20.3 20.4 -4.0 8.8 10.9 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 20.7 18.6 18.2 -4.5 5.1 6.9 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 21.5 19.2 18.8 -4.3 4.2 6.0 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 20.1 16.7 15.1 -5.4 2.3 3.8 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 21.0 19.3 19.9 -3.8 6.5 8.8 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 22.0 18.9 17.3 -4.9 2.2 3.4 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 14.8 11.5 14.3 -5.0 2.9 4.4 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 21.4 20.3 20.8 -3.8 8.9 11.2 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------