***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 24.9 25.9 26.1 1.3 65.8 61.7 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 25.5 25.9 26.0 0.9 60.5 57.4 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 25.4 26.2 26.2 1.2 64.3 60.3 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.3 22.5 0.7 59.2 56.6 16.4 17.6 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.9 26.2 23.7 0.8 60.6 57.4 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.8 21.2 1.0 62.9 59.1 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 25.1 25.9 26.0 1.1 63.8 59.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.1 21.6 1.0 62.3 58.2 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.7 24.5 1.0 63.1 59.0 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.8 22.8 1.2 65.0 60.1 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.7 26.0 23.8 0.8 59.9 56.7 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.8 22.9 0.8 60.1 56.8 23.0 24.2 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.9 22.8 0.7 58.2 55.5 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.3 26.3 24.4 1.4 67.7 62.0 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.8 24.4 0.2 53.4 52.4 24.5 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.4 23.1 0.6 57.8 55.3 24.8 25.9 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.5 25.6 0.8 60.2 57.0 23.0 24.6 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.5 22.1 1.4 67.7 61.8 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.5 26.0 0.9 60.9 57.7 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.6 19.3 1.0 62.7 58.5 18.4 19.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.9 25.3 1.0 62.3 58.5 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 25.6 26.3 25.7 1.1 63.4 59.5 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.4 26.1 26.0 1.1 63.1 59.3 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.9 24.4 1.4 67.9 62.1 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.8 24.1 0.9 61.4 58.2 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.7 22.4 1.1 63.5 59.6 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 25.1 25.9 25.2 1.2 65.2 61.2 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.0 23.2 0.5 56.1 54.3 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.8 20.6 21.1 1.3 66.4 60.9 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 25.3 26.0 26.2 1.1 63.4 59.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------