***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.6 27.1 0.9 61.8 57.9 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 24.4 26.8 26.9 0.6 56.6 54.6 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.8 27.0 27.2 0.8 60.2 56.8 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.8 24.0 0.3 54.5 52.6 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 24.7 27.0 24.5 0.3 54.4 52.6 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.9 22.1 0.7 59.6 55.5 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.6 27.0 0.7 59.0 56.5 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.6 15.0 22.8 0.5 56.2 53.7 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.5 24.9 0.5 56.9 54.4 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.0 26.5 23.6 0.7 58.3 55.2 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.4 26.6 24.2 0.2 52.8 51.6 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 23.4 25.6 24.1 0.4 54.4 52.5 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.9 23.2 0.4 55.3 52.9 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.9 26.6 24.8 0.7 58.7 55.7 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 25.7 27.4 25.1 0.2 52.3 50.7 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 25.3 27.4 23.7 0.3 53.7 52.0 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.7 26.1 26.7 0.5 55.5 54.0 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.8 26.2 23.2 1.0 62.0 57.6 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 23.7 26.2 27.0 0.6 56.8 54.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.7 20.4 0.8 59.9 56.2 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 26.8 26.8 25.9 0.6 57.5 54.8 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.1 26.6 26.6 0.6 56.9 55.0 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 24.0 26.6 27.0 0.7 58.1 55.4 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.1 26.4 25.0 0.9 61.5 57.3 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 27.1 27.2 24.8 0.6 58.3 55.4 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.0 24.0 0.9 61.6 57.1 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.0 26.1 0.9 62.1 58.1 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 25.7 27.5 24.3 0.2 53.0 51.4 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.4 21.4 22.1 0.8 60.5 56.7 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.7 27.1 0.7 59.0 56.2 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------