***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.5 27.6 0.8 60.2 56.6 25.7 26.8 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.6 27.5 0.5 55.4 52.7 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.8 27.8 0.7 58.8 55.5 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.4 24.7 0.1 51.8 50.7 18.0 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.6 25.1 0.1 51.3 50.4 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.4 22.7 0.3 54.1 52.2 23.8 25.1 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.6 27.5 0.7 57.7 54.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.8 23.4 0.2 52.1 50.7 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.5 26.3 25.4 0.3 54.1 52.4 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.3 24.1 0.4 54.7 52.7 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.3 24.9 0.0 50.1 49.6 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.5 24.8 0.1 51.0 50.1 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.5 23.8 0.1 51.4 50.4 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.4 25.2 0.5 56.1 53.5 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.2 25.8 0.1 51.0 50.1 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.1 24.4 0.0 50.5 49.9 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.9 27.2 0.4 54.4 52.0 24.2 25.6 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.9 23.6 0.6 57.6 54.7 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.1 27.6 0.5 55.3 52.7 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.2 20.8 0.3 54.0 51.7 19.5 20.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 26.6 26.6 26.5 0.4 55.3 53.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.4 27.1 0.5 55.7 53.0 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.5 27.5 0.5 56.0 53.3 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.2 25.4 0.7 58.5 55.4 24.3 25.6 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 26.7 26.8 25.4 0.5 56.2 53.8 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.3 24.5 0.4 55.0 52.8 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.6 26.6 0.8 60.1 56.6 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.2 25.0 0.0 50.6 49.9 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.0 21.0 22.4 0.4 55.3 52.9 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.6 27.6 0.7 57.8 54.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------