***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.4 25.3 -0.2 46.7 47.8 24.7 25.6 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.1 25.2 -0.5 40.8 42.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.1 25.4 -0.3 43.5 45.2 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 17.4 17.5 21.9 -0.9 31.6 35.6 17.6 18.4 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.8 24.9 22.7 -0.9 31.5 35.6 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 23.2 23.4 20.1 -0.8 31.1 35.2 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.9 25.3 -0.3 44.6 46.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.7 12.8 20.6 -0.9 31.2 35.6 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 24.2 24.5 23.3 -0.7 36.1 39.5 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.2 24.5 21.6 -0.7 36.0 39.5 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.6 24.6 22.6 -1.1 29.1 33.6 24.8 25.6 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 23.6 23.6 21.9 -1.0 30.1 34.6 23.8 24.5 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 24.5 24.6 21.6 -1.1 28.4 32.9 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.9 23.3 -0.4 42.7 44.7 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.3 23.6 -1.1 27.8 31.9 25.6 26.3 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 25.2 25.1 22.0 -1.1 27.8 32.4 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.4 24.9 -0.6 39.6 42.2 24.0 24.9 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 23.6 24.1 21.0 -0.5 39.8 42.7 23.7 24.5 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 25.3 24.6 25.3 -0.5 41.0 43.0 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 18.8 19.0 18.2 -0.8 31.8 36.1 19.1 19.9 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.3 -0.6 37.4 40.3 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.0 25.0 -0.4 43.4 45.2 24.5 25.4 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.6 25.0 25.2 -0.4 42.6 44.3 24.5 25.4 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.5 23.2 -0.4 42.8 44.8 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 24.6 25.0 23.3 -0.6 37.7 40.6 24.8 25.6 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 24.3 24.5 21.5 -0.7 34.8 38.6 24.4 25.1 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.0 24.5 -0.2 45.3 46.8 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 25.3 25.3 22.4 -1.1 28.3 32.5 25.6 26.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 18.6 19.0 20.0 -0.6 36.6 40.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.0 25.4 -0.3 44.3 45.8 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------