***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 7.6 8.2 14.2 85.2 58.4 52.1 3.2 6.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.8 9.0 10.5 69.6 53.1 45.4 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.8 14.1 87.5 59.0 52.4 4.6 7.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 13.7 17.6 18.5 103.1 64.8 58.5 6.8 11.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 15.1 18.0 23.2 137.9 74.7 66.4 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 22.5 23.5 28.0 140.2 75.2 71.2 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.2 11.0 72.3 54.1 45.2 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 35.7 39.2 31.9 145.6 75.4 68.8 12.4 20.5 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 15.8 18.4 24.3 144.9 76.4 68.6 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 22.2 26.7 34.8 161.4 80.2 72.7 6.6 11.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 18.0 21.0 25.5 144.7 76.1 67.7 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 16.8 18.2 22.0 128.0 71.8 64.6 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 20.1 23.2 26.5 150.4 77.3 71.5 4.9 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 17.2 21.1 22.3 102.0 64.3 56.4 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 11.5 13.0 13.6 87.0 61.0 54.8 5.1 9.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 18.8 21.5 23.7 145.1 76.4 70.0 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.4 6.5 8.9 61.5 49.6 41.7 3.2 6.7 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 21.1 24.0 31.1 138.8 75.0 68.1 6.7 11.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.5 10.9 70.4 53.2 45.9 3.2 6.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 21.5 25.0 33.5 147.3 77.3 71.0 6.7 11.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.7 12.7 19.7 123.1 70.7 63.6 4.5 7.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.8 8.3 7.9 54.1 45.4 38.5 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.9 12.0 72.1 53.2 45.8 4.0 7.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 13.0 18.6 22.6 116.3 69.0 61.5 6.1 10.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 8.2 10.1 17.8 98.7 63.1 56.6 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 11.8 12.9 14.0 88.6 59.3 53.9 5.6 9.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.3 7.9 15.5 86.3 58.5 52.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.4 14.1 20.0 109.7 67.0 61.1 4.7 8.5 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 26.7 29.9 30.4 134.8 73.9 66.7 8.9 15.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.7 11.5 74.2 55.0 47.4 3.2 6.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------