***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 21.9 15.8 11.0 61.1 47.7 41.4 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.0 14.6 11.0 66.7 52.0 42.0 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.2 19.2 12.6 67.1 50.9 43.8 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.4 18.3 15.4 76.2 54.6 46.3 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.8 13.7 13.5 67.2 49.0 40.9 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.0 12.5 17.9 74.5 47.6 41.6 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.5 13.7 11.4 68.8 52.8 43.9 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.7 24.0 14.9 71.4 50.0 40.5 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.1 16.1 14.9 70.4 50.1 42.5 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.1 14.6 14.7 67.7 49.1 39.4 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.9 14.9 15.2 77.9 53.5 44.7 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.4 13.8 14.0 75.0 51.9 42.7 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 16.0 10.7 13.3 64.6 46.4 38.4 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 13.9 22.5 15.4 63.8 48.2 39.7 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.1 13.8 74.0 53.8 42.7 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.8 10.9 14.8 73.6 50.5 42.4 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.5 19.7 12.0 76.8 55.9 45.9 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 15.2 21.4 16.3 68.4 48.3 39.2 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.3 15.8 11.3 66.2 51.4 41.4 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.2 13.9 15.3 67.4 46.6 38.4 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 8.9 14.0 13.3 64.6 47.4 40.1 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.4 18.2 12.8 79.6 57.3 46.4 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.6 15.0 12.2 67.7 51.4 41.7 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.3 22.2 15.8 68.8 49.6 41.0 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.4 16.0 14.2 66.9 48.6 42.0 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.4 9.8 14.8 73.6 49.9 43.7 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.5 13.1 12.5 61.6 46.8 40.6 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.8 15.1 79.8 56.2 45.9 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 13.4 19.7 16.6 66.8 45.9 37.7 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.6 15.3 10.8 63.9 50.4 41.5 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------