***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.1 18.8 14.0 93.5 62.0 45.4 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 9.9 22.3 11.8 91.9 61.3 45.9 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.1 23.2 14.0 93.8 61.9 45.0 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 9.1 23.2 15.6 91.7 60.7 44.5 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.3 17.0 14.5 89.8 59.6 42.0 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.3 18.1 19.0 92.0 59.6 46.7 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.7 17.8 11.7 91.1 61.3 45.3 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.5 23.0 16.7 91.5 60.1 45.6 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.6 14.8 87.8 58.6 42.0 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 17.6 16.8 87.0 58.4 43.2 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.9 16.8 13.7 93.8 61.8 44.5 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.5 14.6 94.0 61.8 46.9 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.9 14.0 15.6 87.1 59.2 46.2 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.4 19.2 17.9 93.1 61.3 46.9 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.6 14.2 95.2 62.7 46.2 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.0 14.9 88.7 60.2 44.7 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.7 21.2 10.8 90.0 61.1 45.5 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.0 20.3 91.7 60.0 46.8 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 24.3 12.3 92.6 61.5 46.0 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 18.2 20.6 97.1 61.2 49.0 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.5 18.5 14.1 89.6 60.2 42.3 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.8 22.5 12.0 95.3 62.6 47.7 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.3 18.4 13.1 93.5 61.8 46.0 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.9 21.1 17.7 93.0 61.1 46.3 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.2 18.5 15.4 91.4 61.1 45.2 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.4 13.3 86.6 59.3 46.1 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.7 18.0 15.1 92.7 61.6 45.9 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.7 15.4 16.1 95.8 62.6 46.5 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 24.6 20.7 93.1 59.9 47.5 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.3 25.1 12.6 94.6 62.0 45.9 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------