***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.5 15.2 86.9 59.7 44.7 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.0 18.4 13.3 87.3 59.5 46.5 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.9 17.6 14.6 85.9 58.9 43.6 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.6 17.2 15.6 92.4 61.6 44.8 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.5 14.2 12.6 78.3 55.6 40.7 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.8 17.3 18.2 97.1 61.9 49.1 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.5 18.0 13.7 88.2 59.8 47.3 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.8 21.2 16.5 86.8 56.9 45.9 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.7 13.8 12.8 72.9 52.7 40.7 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.0 19.3 15.6 74.8 51.9 42.5 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 5.0 12.7 11.4 76.8 54.0 41.0 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.3 13.1 88.0 58.7 45.8 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.7 15.1 94.2 61.8 47.7 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 12.0 25.5 19.0 88.6 58.6 46.8 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.3 13.2 91.4 62.2 44.9 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.6 13.6 13.8 90.0 60.2 45.2 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.6 14.0 93.5 61.8 48.7 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.9 15.1 18.7 81.3 53.6 45.3 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.6 19.0 13.5 86.6 59.0 45.5 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 19.9 21.7 105.9 64.2 54.2 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.7 14.5 13.6 81.7 57.3 42.4 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.3 14.7 92.6 61.5 49.6 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.0 14.9 14.0 87.9 59.0 44.5 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.6 23.9 16.5 82.0 55.1 44.2 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.6 17.9 15.8 87.0 60.1 45.7 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.0 17.3 14.5 110.2 67.5 52.4 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 19.5 19.2 15.7 85.0 58.9 45.5 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.1 14.2 15.0 93.5 62.3 45.3 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 20.7 20.1 88.4 56.7 47.7 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 6.9 17.1 13.8 86.2 58.7 45.3 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------