***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 43.4 58.0 54.4 81.0 45.0 41.2 45.5 63.5 84.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 79.5 68.6 46.6 78.1 43.9 41.3 60.5 73.4 87.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 57.7 72.8 55.3 82.8 46.0 42.0 58.1 77.3 99.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 89.4 83.1 65.0 90.4 51.5 47.2 63.9 81.2 100.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 73.2 68.9 63.8 92.3 52.2 47.5 54.1 67.0 81.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 74.7 75.3 83.1 99.9 56.5 52.9 57.7 70.3 83.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 70.5 56.2 47.8 79.5 45.0 41.5 45.3 61.6 80.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 109.2 110.0 80.0 100.7 57.1 52.7 87.1 102.8 119.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 73.8 69.6 66.8 92.3 51.3 46.8 56.3 68.7 81.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 85.4 84.1 81.9 98.4 55.4 50.9 64.8 79.4 94.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 69.6 69.6 65.9 99.1 56.8 52.0 54.5 65.1 76.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 62.0 61.1 63.8 96.5 55.2 50.9 46.5 57.6 69.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 67.7 67.4 70.5 97.6 55.9 52.3 52.6 63.4 74.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 103.4 91.2 74.5 86.0 46.1 43.9 78.2 94.9 112.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 63.2 56.9 54.8 86.1 50.8 46.2 42.6 56.3 71.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 59.2 59.1 67.3 98.0 56.2 52.2 42.5 54.3 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 73.4 59.3 45.7 80.1 46.4 42.9 45.8 63.5 83.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 84.3 80.3 86.5 94.7 51.9 48.2 66.5 78.9 91.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 87.4 71.9 48.0 78.1 43.5 41.0 61.6 78.4 96.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 77.6 80.9 91.0 104.6 59.9 55.5 59.0 72.6 86.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 69.5 61.6 60.7 88.0 49.1 44.9 48.7 62.7 77.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 78.7 65.5 47.3 80.3 46.1 43.1 51.9 69.8 88.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 50.3 60.5 51.4 79.4 43.9 41.2 52.4 65.0 78.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 98.3 88.7 72.6 88.8 48.3 44.9 74.3 90.4 107.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 75.1 64.6 63.2 85.1 47.5 44.0 51.5 66.9 84.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 64.9 58.2 56.6 88.0 49.8 46.1 45.7 58.4 72.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 50.6 62.4 58.8 80.5 44.3 41.0 52.0 67.8 85.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 61.6 60.4 66.2 94.7 54.9 50.2 47.2 57.2 67.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 104.5 100.0 87.8 95.2 51.8 48.4 83.9 98.4 113.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 80.3 67.1 48.7 78.9 43.9 41.2 57.4 72.6 88.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------