***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 13.5 13.5 14.9 0.9 66.8 65.8 11.4 12.5 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.7 14.9 1.0 69.2 68.2 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 15.2 15.2 14.7 0.8 66.1 65.1 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 10.1 10.1 12.6 0.9 67.3 66.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 11.7 11.7 12.8 0.9 68.0 67.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 9.8 10.1 10.3 0.5 60.9 60.3 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.8 13.7 15.0 1.0 69.6 68.6 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 4.6 4.8 9.9 0.3 56.5 56.0 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 12.0 12.5 13.2 0.7 65.2 64.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 11.8 12.2 11.0 0.5 60.0 59.4 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 11.6 12.0 12.0 0.6 63.1 62.3 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 9.8 10.0 10.7 0.4 58.1 57.5 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 11.1 11.5 11.0 0.5 62.1 61.6 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.7 13.1 12.8 0.6 63.2 62.7 11.6 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 13.5 13.5 13.9 0.8 65.2 64.4 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.8 12.7 11.9 0.8 67.0 66.1 11.0 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.1 14.8 1.2 72.1 70.9 11.6 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 10.3 10.5 9.9 0.3 56.9 56.6 9.3 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.5 14.8 1.0 68.7 67.7 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.1 7.4 -0.1 48.9 49.0 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 12.0 12.5 14.3 0.7 63.8 62.9 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.1 14.6 1.0 69.6 68.5 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.1 14.5 0.9 68.3 67.4 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 12.0 12.5 12.5 0.6 62.5 62.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 0.9 67.8 67.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 10.6 11.0 10.6 0.6 61.7 61.2 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.6 14.4 1.0 68.3 67.4 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 11.0 11.5 13.0 0.7 64.6 63.9 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 8.9 8.8 9.1 0.1 52.1 52.1 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.7 15.0 0.9 67.8 66.9 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------