***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.1 14.7 -0.2 46.1 47.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.2 14.7 -0.3 44.7 46.2 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.3 14.6 14.4 -0.4 43.2 45.2 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.3 12.2 -0.6 37.5 40.5 9.0 10.0 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.4 12.1 -0.6 38.5 41.3 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.3 10.0 -0.8 33.7 36.3 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.4 14.8 -0.2 45.7 47.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.8 10.0 -0.7 36.0 38.6 4.7 5.5 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.5 12.4 -0.5 39.7 42.3 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.3 10.8 -0.6 37.9 40.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.1 11.5 -0.6 37.3 40.0 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.3 10.8 -0.8 34.6 37.1 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.5 10.4 -0.9 31.9 34.6 11.6 12.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.0 12.5 -0.6 38.5 40.6 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.2 12.7 -0.7 35.9 39.1 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.3 11.2 -0.8 34.7 37.3 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.6 14.6 -0.3 45.4 46.8 12.9 13.8 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.0 10.0 -0.7 37.0 39.4 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.2 14.6 -0.3 43.8 45.5 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.8 8.1 -0.9 34.1 36.6 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.6 13.6 -0.4 41.7 44.1 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 13.4 12.8 14.4 -0.4 43.5 45.1 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.4 12.7 14.1 -0.5 41.9 43.8 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.4 12.2 -0.6 39.2 41.5 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.8 13.0 -0.4 43.2 45.2 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.0 10.6 -1.0 29.7 32.9 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.1 13.9 -0.2 45.7 47.1 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.3 12.4 -0.7 35.1 38.3 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.3 9.3 -0.7 35.8 38.2 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.1 13.5 14.8 -0.3 44.8 46.4 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------