***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.5 15.7 -0.3 44.0 46.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.0 14.0 15.7 -0.3 44.1 46.1 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.4 15.4 -0.4 41.9 44.5 14.8 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.5 13.6 -0.5 40.2 44.5 9.9 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.4 13.4 -0.5 39.8 44.1 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.2 11.5 -0.6 37.7 42.8 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.3 15.8 -0.2 45.8 47.3 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 5.8 11.3 -0.6 36.6 41.1 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.4 13.6 -0.5 39.5 43.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.1 12.0 -0.5 38.3 42.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.1 12.8 -0.5 38.5 43.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.9 12.2 -0.7 35.0 40.3 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.4 11.8 -0.7 34.4 40.5 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.8 13.6 -0.5 39.2 43.0 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.2 14.1 -0.5 39.5 43.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.3 12.6 -0.6 37.2 42.7 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.6 15.6 -0.2 46.6 48.0 13.8 14.8 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.8 11.2 -0.5 37.9 42.2 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 13.2 13.9 15.6 -0.3 42.9 45.3 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.4 9.4 -0.7 35.7 40.4 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.4 14.7 -0.4 40.7 44.1 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.6 15.3 -0.3 43.6 45.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.5 15.1 -0.4 41.1 44.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.2 13.3 -0.5 39.6 43.3 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.6 14.1 -0.3 42.8 45.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 11.6 11.7 11.9 -0.8 32.4 37.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.8 14.9 -0.2 44.7 46.8 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.3 13.8 -0.5 38.6 43.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.8 10.6 -0.6 37.3 41.9 9.5 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.2 15.8 -0.3 43.5 45.6 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------