***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 24.8 24.0 23.8 -0.3 44.6 45.3 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 25.0 24.2 23.8 -0.4 44.1 44.8 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 24.9 24.1 23.8 -0.4 43.4 44.0 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.6 16.3 21.2 -0.6 39.9 40.8 15.7 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 25.1 24.3 22.0 -0.4 43.5 44.0 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 23.3 22.4 19.5 -0.4 44.3 44.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 24.6 24.1 23.9 -0.2 47.3 47.9 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 12.6 11.8 20.0 -0.3 45.0 45.3 10.8 12.3 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 24.5 23.9 23.0 -0.3 45.3 45.7 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 24.3 23.6 21.0 -0.3 44.8 45.2 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 24.8 24.1 21.7 -0.3 45.1 45.5 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 23.6 22.9 20.9 -0.3 45.4 45.7 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 24.6 24.0 21.0 -0.2 46.5 46.7 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 24.7 23.7 22.3 -0.5 41.8 42.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 25.4 24.2 22.9 -0.7 38.3 39.7 23.8 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 25.2 24.5 21.4 -0.3 45.2 45.6 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 24.3 23.7 23.6 -0.2 46.5 47.0 22.7 24.0 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.9 22.9 20.1 -0.4 43.5 44.0 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 24.6 23.7 23.7 -0.5 42.9 43.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 19.0 17.8 17.8 -0.5 42.0 42.5 17.0 18.6 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 24.8 24.0 23.7 -0.4 43.9 44.5 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 24.9 24.0 23.4 -0.4 43.6 44.4 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 24.9 23.9 23.5 -0.5 42.1 42.8 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 24.3 23.4 22.1 -0.4 43.4 43.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 25.0 24.0 22.5 -0.5 42.4 43.3 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 24.1 23.2 20.1 -0.4 43.4 43.7 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 24.6 23.8 23.2 -0.4 44.4 45.2 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 25.4 24.3 21.9 -0.7 39.7 40.7 23.8 25.0 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 19.0 18.0 19.3 -0.4 44.0 44.4 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 24.9 24.1 23.9 -0.4 44.1 44.8 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------