***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 25.2 23.4 24.2 -1.1 35.6 38.7 23.2 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.8 23.8 24.2 -1.2 34.7 37.7 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.8 23.7 24.2 -1.2 34.1 37.3 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.4 16.7 22.5 -1.2 33.9 37.0 16.6 17.9 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 26.1 24.4 22.5 -1.2 34.7 37.9 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.3 20.4 -1.0 35.7 39.0 23.1 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 25.3 23.6 24.3 -1.0 36.5 39.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.3 20.8 -1.3 33.4 36.8 12.3 13.5 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.4 23.8 22.9 -1.1 35.2 38.4 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.4 23.6 21.5 -1.2 34.4 37.8 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.9 24.3 21.9 -1.2 34.6 37.9 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.2 21.6 -1.3 33.1 36.6 23.2 24.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.1 24.5 21.0 -1.3 33.0 36.6 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.7 23.7 22.6 -1.2 35.0 38.3 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 26.3 24.7 22.9 -1.2 33.2 36.1 24.6 25.8 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.1 21.6 -1.2 34.2 37.6 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 25.3 23.5 24.1 -1.1 35.9 38.8 23.2 24.7 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.8 23.0 20.9 -1.2 34.6 38.0 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.4 23.3 24.2 -1.3 33.9 36.9 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.4 18.5 18.5 -1.4 32.0 35.7 18.6 19.9 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.5 23.7 23.7 -1.2 34.7 37.9 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.9 23.9 23.9 -1.2 34.4 37.2 23.7 25.3 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.8 23.7 23.9 -1.3 34.0 37.1 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.3 22.6 -1.2 35.1 38.3 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.6 24.0 22.8 -1.1 35.5 38.5 23.8 25.2 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 25.6 23.9 20.7 -1.5 30.8 34.4 24.1 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 25.3 23.8 23.5 -1.0 36.4 39.4 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 26.3 24.7 22.6 -1.2 33.5 36.6 24.6 25.8 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.1 18.3 19.8 -1.2 34.1 37.6 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.6 23.7 24.3 -1.2 34.5 37.6 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------