***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 24.8 25.5 25.4 -0.9 37.5 41.8 25.1 26.7 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 24.4 25.1 25.4 -1.0 36.3 40.9 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 24.4 25.0 25.3 -1.1 35.4 40.0 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 17.6 18.2 23.7 -1.2 33.7 38.7 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 24.6 25.4 23.6 -1.1 34.4 39.3 25.2 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 23.3 24.0 21.5 -1.1 34.2 38.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 24.1 25.0 25.5 -0.8 38.7 42.8 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.3 21.9 -1.2 33.6 38.6 13.2 14.7 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 24.1 24.7 23.9 -1.1 34.7 39.5 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 24.0 24.6 22.6 -1.1 34.4 39.2 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 24.5 25.2 23.1 -1.1 34.4 39.3 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 23.5 24.0 22.8 -1.2 32.9 38.1 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 24.5 25.0 22.2 -1.3 32.2 37.6 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 24.2 24.7 23.6 -1.0 36.0 40.2 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.7 26.1 24.1 -1.2 32.6 37.6 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 25.1 25.8 22.8 -1.2 33.4 38.4 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 23.8 24.6 25.2 -0.9 37.4 42.0 24.2 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 23.5 24.1 21.8 -1.1 35.0 39.6 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.9 24.5 25.3 -1.1 35.5 40.1 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 18.8 19.4 19.7 -1.2 33.2 38.4 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.4 24.9 24.7 -1.1 34.6 39.4 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.2 24.8 25.0 -1.0 35.7 40.7 24.6 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.2 24.8 25.0 -1.1 35.5 40.0 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 23.8 24.3 23.5 -1.1 35.7 40.0 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 24.9 25.5 23.9 -1.0 36.9 41.3 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 24.3 24.7 22.1 -1.3 31.2 36.9 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.4 25.2 24.7 -0.8 38.9 42.9 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.1 23.8 -1.3 32.5 37.5 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 18.4 19.2 20.8 -1.1 35.3 39.8 18.9 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 24.2 24.9 25.5 -1.0 36.5 41.0 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------