***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 25.4 26.3 26.5 -0.6 40.8 43.1 25.8 26.9 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 24.3 25.3 26.5 -0.7 38.5 41.5 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 24.3 25.3 26.5 -0.7 39.3 41.9 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 17.6 18.5 24.8 -0.8 37.5 40.9 18.2 19.4 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 24.7 25.8 24.8 -0.6 39.5 42.1 25.3 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 23.6 24.2 22.4 -0.8 35.7 39.6 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 24.0 25.3 26.6 -0.6 41.2 43.2 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.9 23.0 -0.7 38.1 40.8 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 24.2 25.3 25.1 -0.6 40.1 42.5 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 24.3 25.4 23.8 -0.6 40.0 42.3 24.9 26.1 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 24.4 25.5 24.2 -0.7 38.7 41.6 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 23.9 24.5 23.9 -0.9 35.4 39.0 24.4 25.6 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 24.7 25.2 23.2 -1.0 33.1 37.4 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 24.3 25.3 24.8 -0.6 40.5 42.8 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 25.5 26.1 25.2 -0.9 34.4 38.6 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 25.2 26.0 23.9 -0.9 35.8 39.4 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 23.7 24.9 26.3 -0.6 40.2 42.6 24.3 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 23.5 24.7 23.1 -0.6 41.1 43.1 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 23.8 24.7 26.4 -0.8 37.7 40.9 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 19.0 20.1 21.0 -0.7 39.0 41.1 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 24.4 25.4 25.9 -0.7 39.2 41.9 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 24.1 25.1 26.2 -0.7 38.6 41.5 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 24.2 25.2 26.2 -0.8 38.1 41.1 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 23.9 25.0 24.8 -0.6 41.1 43.2 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 24.4 25.6 25.0 -0.6 40.1 42.7 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 24.5 24.8 23.2 -1.0 33.1 37.0 24.8 26.1 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 24.0 25.3 25.7 -0.5 41.7 43.7 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 25.5 26.2 25.0 -0.9 35.2 39.1 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.8 20.0 22.1 -0.5 41.4 43.2 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 24.1 25.2 26.6 -0.7 38.9 41.7 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------