***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 20.4 33.1 35.8 217.6 89.5 84.1 5.0 9.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 20.7 40.5 31.8 220.8 90.7 81.9 4.1 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 20.2 30.3 33.4 204.1 88.0 80.8 6.2 10.4 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 25.4 34.8 38.8 193.8 86.4 80.3 8.4 13.6 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 17.9 25.0 38.6 194.2 85.9 80.3 5.1 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 23.6 27.2 36.1 158.0 79.8 75.1 9.0 13.8 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 18.6 34.2 31.2 210.8 89.3 81.5 3.2 7.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 35.7 42.2 33.8 150.5 78.0 71.9 13.2 21.2 31.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 17.4 23.4 37.4 186.4 85.6 79.1 6.2 9.8 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 21.9 28.3 38.1 170.3 83.0 77.0 7.8 12.5 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 20.6 27.2 34.6 181.7 84.3 78.6 5.8 10.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 18.8 22.1 29.7 154.0 78.8 72.6 6.6 10.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 21.1 26.1 34.8 164.2 81.3 76.4 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 32.7 49.7 35.5 193.1 87.0 78.3 8.7 15.6 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 23.0 36.5 36.4 206.4 87.9 80.9 6.1 11.1 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 21.3 26.6 34.1 170.3 82.4 76.9 6.5 10.9 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 18.5 32.6 30.2 214.9 88.8 79.9 3.9 7.9 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 25.2 30.5 36.3 152.6 79.5 73.2 8.9 14.4 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 18.7 37.4 32.2 220.9 90.8 81.5 3.5 7.6 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 22.0 24.0 31.2 128.5 72.1 66.4 7.6 13.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 16.2 22.1 35.6 194.7 86.5 79.7 5.9 9.1 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 26.2 49.5 28.9 210.7 89.5 79.0 4.5 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 19.6 35.9 32.6 218.2 90.2 81.1 4.7 9.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 27.6 36.4 35.3 172.2 83.3 75.7 8.8 14.8 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 18.8 27.4 40.2 197.7 87.6 80.7 6.0 9.8 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 19.8 24.0 29.5 155.1 79.2 74.3 5.4 9.8 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 17.7 27.9 39.6 208.6 89.0 82.9 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 19.5 26.1 36.3 192.9 85.8 79.5 7.6 11.5 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 29.5 34.1 33.0 142.2 76.2 69.3 11.0 17.7 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 19.6 35.2 32.4 217.0 90.3 82.6 4.3 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------