***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.3 31.3 18.8 137.5 74.8 57.5 8.5 15.2 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.3 23.4 16.8 106.4 65.6 52.8 9.2 15.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 23.4 30.9 17.0 112.7 67.9 54.0 10.8 18.7 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.2 31.4 20.0 120.5 70.0 55.5 9.9 17.6 28.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.9 23.1 19.3 115.9 68.8 55.3 9.7 15.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 14.9 20.7 29.4 114.4 67.4 57.7 7.3 12.8 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.0 23.1 17.5 116.4 68.9 55.0 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 27.4 31.5 19.7 102.0 63.5 56.4 15.7 23.6 33.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.9 23.5 19.3 110.3 67.2 54.5 10.1 15.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.2 20.3 20.7 98.6 62.3 54.0 10.0 15.4 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.1 18.7 15.9 102.1 64.2 53.2 8.1 13.1 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.2 19.7 16.0 111.7 67.2 57.5 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.8 21.7 22.3 121.8 70.1 59.8 7.2 12.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.2 30.0 20.8 97.4 61.9 50.5 12.6 21.7 33.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.2 22.4 18.0 122.1 70.7 57.7 6.3 11.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.5 17.1 19.3 112.9 67.3 56.9 5.7 10.3 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.6 28.6 16.5 108.3 66.3 51.2 9.8 17.8 28.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 23.2 24.5 23.6 93.9 59.6 53.1 13.8 20.2 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.2 26.9 16.9 104.6 65.1 51.9 8.7 16.6 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 15.9 18.8 25.4 100.6 62.0 56.8 7.5 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.1 23.0 17.4 118.1 69.7 54.9 8.1 13.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.7 26.5 17.1 108.2 66.4 51.4 9.1 16.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.0 21.2 17.7 106.5 66.2 52.4 7.2 13.0 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.1 26.1 20.4 97.1 61.4 51.8 14.0 20.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 19.3 31.1 25.1 141.6 75.7 60.3 9.3 15.8 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 17.2 17.7 18.4 122.6 70.5 62.6 5.0 9.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 18.6 32.0 24.2 145.0 76.6 60.0 8.1 14.7 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.3 16.6 18.5 117.0 69.2 56.3 6.3 10.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.4 24.2 23.1 90.5 57.9 52.0 12.4 20.0 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.1 25.3 17.2 110.0 66.8 53.9 10.2 16.7 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------