***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 26.5 35.6 21.8 171.9 81.5 66.8 5.8 11.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 27.0 31.8 20.0 158.0 79.4 66.5 10.0 15.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 32.2 40.2 21.0 157.2 79.2 65.4 6.8 14.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 28.0 36.2 25.3 163.8 80.4 67.1 8.1 14.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 21.3 29.3 25.8 167.8 81.3 67.9 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 22.9 28.5 28.9 152.4 78.2 67.7 6.9 12.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 22.1 26.1 20.0 151.6 78.0 65.0 6.6 11.5 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 27.8 33.1 24.9 148.0 77.3 66.5 10.2 16.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 22.2 32.5 26.6 168.5 81.5 67.6 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 28.4 36.2 28.3 155.5 79.1 67.7 7.8 14.5 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 21.7 28.0 21.4 161.6 80.0 67.0 6.1 11.3 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 18.0 23.9 20.2 162.5 80.2 67.0 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 18.6 26.8 24.7 167.0 81.3 68.3 4.7 9.4 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 24.2 28.5 28.5 146.0 76.9 64.7 7.6 13.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 15.7 20.3 20.1 151.5 77.6 62.7 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.8 22.9 23.1 168.9 81.6 68.1 4.7 8.6 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 25.8 32.9 20.2 163.3 80.7 64.4 7.9 13.7 21.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 23.7 29.1 32.4 149.0 78.1 68.1 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 30.1 36.3 20.2 158.5 79.5 66.2 10.7 17.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 24.5 28.3 30.3 140.8 75.9 66.8 6.9 12.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 24.7 33.4 23.1 173.9 82.0 68.0 7.3 12.9 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 24.2 29.5 20.3 156.5 79.3 64.0 9.6 14.9 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 22.8 27.6 21.7 157.5 79.2 65.0 7.5 12.6 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 26.9 32.8 28.1 148.1 77.6 66.2 7.8 14.3 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 24.9 31.3 27.9 164.2 80.3 67.4 6.9 12.7 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 19.2 28.4 19.3 164.9 80.8 69.9 3.9 8.6 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 25.5 33.3 26.3 165.0 80.4 66.5 6.3 12.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 20.9 28.1 23.1 164.8 80.4 66.6 5.1 10.1 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 31.7 38.0 31.8 145.8 77.3 67.7 9.7 17.2 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 30.7 35.5 20.1 156.6 79.0 66.5 10.8 17.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------