***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.0 17.0 8.3 85.2 60.2 43.8 6.0 12.0 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.2 19.4 9.3 96.0 63.4 47.3 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.3 22.0 9.3 94.1 62.4 47.8 7.8 14.9 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.3 21.9 11.2 105.2 66.0 49.9 5.7 12.2 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.6 20.1 10.8 95.6 62.7 49.5 5.8 12.6 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.8 19.3 15.9 103.7 65.1 53.2 5.9 11.6 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 7.6 20.3 9.2 91.9 61.7 46.3 7.6 14.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 22.2 24.5 14.2 92.8 61.2 52.3 9.0 17.1 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.8 10.7 89.6 60.9 48.9 8.3 14.4 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.8 23.3 13.9 90.0 60.1 50.5 8.8 16.7 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.4 18.3 10.1 96.4 62.6 50.2 5.6 11.7 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.1 10.7 99.5 63.8 52.8 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.6 17.1 12.0 103.8 65.3 56.1 4.9 10.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.4 28.2 13.5 94.9 62.8 50.7 11.1 19.5 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 16.6 11.4 125.7 72.1 50.2 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.7 15.4 10.5 101.5 64.4 52.9 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.3 8.7 94.6 63.4 47.0 5.4 10.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.7 18.9 16.9 95.0 61.5 53.3 6.8 13.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.1 22.9 9.6 101.2 65.2 48.1 6.6 13.6 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 16.0 18.8 18.3 97.1 62.5 55.8 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.1 17.8 8.5 88.1 60.7 46.9 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.5 16.6 8.7 94.6 63.4 47.1 5.0 10.4 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.9 21.8 10.8 108.1 67.4 49.6 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.1 30.8 13.7 96.2 62.5 51.7 12.3 21.6 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.0 20.2 11.3 94.0 62.9 50.6 7.2 13.4 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.2 18.6 10.8 112.5 68.2 58.4 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.0 21.8 10.7 89.0 61.4 48.1 8.6 15.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.5 15.0 10.9 111.7 68.0 48.7 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.6 27.1 17.9 99.5 63.3 54.7 9.3 17.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 6.0 17.7 9.3 93.6 62.5 46.8 6.2 11.8 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------