***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 101.8 130.8 84.6 161.3 85.4 78.9 46.4 65.3 87.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 95.5 107.1 77.9 148.2 82.0 75.7 61.0 73.9 88.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 114.3 135.1 80.6 147.5 82.4 75.8 61.2 80.8 102.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 110.2 132.4 95.3 152.0 85.0 77.6 64.7 81.6 99.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 89.8 104.6 94.5 149.5 84.1 77.3 54.1 67.3 81.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 87.0 96.9 110.3 133.1 78.0 71.3 56.5 69.5 83.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 92.5 108.3 77.8 146.8 81.6 74.7 46.5 63.1 82.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 123.3 130.7 92.5 125.2 75.0 68.4 87.3 103.0 119.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 88.4 99.5 94.0 144.0 81.5 75.5 56.3 68.7 82.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 101.5 110.8 101.0 131.4 77.7 71.4 66.1 80.6 96.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 84.4 94.8 82.1 140.6 81.7 74.4 54.8 66.3 78.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 74.0 83.3 76.6 134.8 79.1 71.8 45.3 56.7 69.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 80.1 91.9 93.8 142.4 82.4 76.0 50.8 62.1 74.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 120.5 132.9 98.3 133.8 78.5 71.4 80.4 97.2 114.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 80.4 98.3 86.0 156.9 84.5 77.4 42.4 56.1 71.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 74.9 87.4 87.0 142.4 82.3 75.3 41.8 54.0 67.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 96.9 116.6 75.5 148.6 82.0 74.7 47.3 65.2 86.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 96.2 101.8 109.3 123.6 74.1 67.9 67.6 80.3 93.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 108.5 125.5 78.9 148.9 82.6 75.9 63.1 80.3 98.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 89.0 91.2 105.2 116.7 69.8 64.4 59.4 73.0 87.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 88.2 103.9 84.5 151.5 83.1 76.7 49.4 63.7 79.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 103.2 119.9 74.9 145.1 81.5 74.4 54.2 72.2 92.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 87.7 102.2 82.8 149.7 83.5 75.7 54.7 67.3 80.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 116.0 127.1 97.4 130.7 77.2 70.4 76.7 93.6 111.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 95.7 118.4 104.5 155.8 85.2 77.7 52.5 68.4 86.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 79.0 88.9 78.0 140.9 80.4 75.5 45.3 57.9 71.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 99.2 121.9 100.7 158.7 85.3 78.2 54.1 70.4 88.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 72.0 83.0 88.9 152.0 84.0 76.8 45.8 55.7 66.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 118.1 121.6 105.9 119.3 71.4 65.2 85.7 100.3 115.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 97.8 112.4 79.0 148.0 81.8 75.7 56.5 72.1 88.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------