***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 10.9 12.4 -1.8 18.0 20.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 10.2 9.9 12.1 -2.2 15.1 17.2 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 12.0 11.7 12.1 -2.1 14.4 16.6 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 6.7 6.5 10.3 -1.9 15.4 17.4 7.8 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 9.0 8.6 10.2 -2.0 12.7 14.8 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 8.4 8.1 8.2 -1.6 16.8 19.6 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 10.4 10.2 12.2 -2.1 15.9 18.0 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 2.2 1.2 7.5 -2.5 8.5 10.7 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 10.2 9.6 10.5 -2.2 9.6 11.8 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 10.0 9.3 8.5 -2.4 8.3 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 9.7 9.1 9.3 -2.3 8.9 11.2 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 7.9 7.2 8.3 -2.3 9.3 11.5 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 9.3 8.8 8.5 -2.0 11.0 13.5 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 10.7 9.9 10.2 -2.6 8.3 10.0 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 11.3 11.1 11.8 -1.6 16.2 18.6 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 10.0 9.5 9.3 -2.0 11.7 14.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 10.7 10.4 11.8 -2.3 14.6 16.7 11.8 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 8.5 7.5 7.5 -2.6 6.8 8.6 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 10.5 10.2 12.0 -2.2 14.4 16.4 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 4.4 3.5 5.2 -2.7 6.6 8.5 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 10.1 9.7 11.7 -2.1 12.4 14.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 10.1 9.6 11.6 -2.4 12.3 14.3 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 10.0 9.6 11.8 -2.2 13.2 15.2 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 10.0 9.2 9.8 -2.5 8.1 10.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 10.2 10.0 11.4 -1.9 16.6 18.9 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 8.9 8.7 8.3 -1.8 16.1 18.4 9.7 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 10.1 9.9 11.9 -1.8 18.0 20.3 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 9.3 9.1 10.9 -1.7 15.6 17.9 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 6.4 5.0 6.6 -2.7 6.1 8.1 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 10.5 10.3 12.3 -2.1 15.8 18.0 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------