***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 13.3 14.2 -1.1 31.4 33.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 12.2 12.4 14.1 -1.2 28.9 31.2 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 13.8 14.1 14.0 -1.1 29.8 32.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 8.7 9.1 12.4 -1.0 30.3 32.5 9.3 10.3 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.0 -1.1 28.1 30.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.4 10.6 -0.7 34.7 37.1 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 12.6 12.8 14.1 -1.2 29.0 31.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 4.3 4.4 9.9 -1.3 24.8 28.1 4.9 5.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 11.8 12.1 12.3 -1.2 27.7 30.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 11.8 11.9 10.7 -1.2 26.0 28.9 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 11.6 11.8 11.5 -1.0 29.1 31.8 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 10.0 10.1 10.9 -1.1 27.7 30.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 11.4 11.6 10.7 -0.8 32.1 34.9 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 12.4 12.5 12.2 -1.3 25.3 28.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.2 13.3 -0.7 36.0 37.5 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.3 11.4 -0.9 31.9 34.5 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.9 13.8 -1.2 28.7 31.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 10.4 10.5 10.0 -1.3 25.4 28.6 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.6 14.0 -1.2 29.1 31.4 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 6.3 6.4 8.1 -1.4 23.5 27.0 6.8 7.5 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.4 -1.1 29.1 31.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 12.0 12.1 13.7 -1.3 27.5 30.1 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 12.0 12.2 13.8 -1.1 28.8 31.2 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 11.7 11.9 12.0 -1.2 26.9 29.9 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 12.1 12.5 12.8 -1.0 31.2 33.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.1 10.8 -0.9 31.2 33.1 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 12.1 12.4 13.5 -1.0 31.8 33.8 12.5 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 11.1 11.4 12.8 -0.8 33.1 35.1 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.2 -1.3 24.6 28.3 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.9 14.2 -1.2 29.3 31.6 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------