***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 12.7 14.7 -0.9 24.8 29.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.6 14.6 -1.1 22.3 26.4 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 14.4 14.3 14.6 -1.0 23.0 27.3 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 9.4 9.3 12.8 -0.9 21.0 25.8 9.8 10.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 11.4 11.3 12.6 -1.0 18.8 23.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 10.4 10.4 10.9 -0.7 24.8 30.7 10.7 11.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 13.0 12.9 14.6 -1.1 22.3 26.5 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 5.0 4.7 10.4 -1.2 14.5 19.6 5.4 5.9 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 12.5 12.4 12.9 -1.1 17.5 22.4 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 12.3 12.1 11.2 -1.1 15.4 20.6 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.0 -1.0 18.0 23.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 10.3 10.1 11.3 -1.0 16.6 21.8 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 11.8 11.6 11.1 -0.8 19.7 25.8 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 13.0 12.7 12.7 -1.2 16.3 21.6 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.5 13.8 -0.7 26.6 30.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.4 11.9 -0.8 20.6 26.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 13.3 13.2 14.3 -1.1 21.9 26.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 10.8 10.4 10.4 -1.2 14.2 19.5 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 12.9 12.9 14.6 -1.0 22.9 27.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 6.7 6.3 8.4 -1.3 12.5 17.6 7.1 7.6 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.4 14.0 -1.0 20.3 25.0 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 12.5 12.4 14.2 -1.1 21.0 25.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.5 12.4 14.3 -1.0 22.7 26.9 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 12.3 12.0 12.5 -1.1 17.2 22.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.4 13.4 -1.0 22.6 26.9 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 11.2 11.1 11.1 -0.9 18.9 24.4 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.6 12.5 14.0 -0.9 24.3 28.6 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 11.5 11.5 13.2 -0.8 23.3 28.2 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 9.2 8.8 9.6 -1.2 13.4 18.7 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.7 -1.1 22.9 27.0 13.4 13.9 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------